This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement 676819). This work is partly carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada. doi: 10.6084/m9.figshare.4055043.įunding: This study was undertaken under the Indus Basin Programme of ICIMOD, funded in part by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), through their financial support of core research at ICIMOD. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: All data have been uploaded to Figshare. Received: JanuAccepted: OctoPublished: November 9, 2016Ĭopyright: © 2016 Lutz et al. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.Ĭitation: Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Kraaijenbrink PDA, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2016) Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes. ![]() In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. ![]() We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21 st century for the upper Indus basin. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high.
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